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MODULE 7 OF 10

How to Invest: Picking Your Funds

A simple index fund approach that has historically performed competitively compared to many actively managed funds

Module 7 - How to Invest

πŸ“‹ Important: This module is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. When I mention specific funds like VTSAX or FSKAX, or vendors like Vanguard and Fidelity, these are educational examples to help you understand the concepts β€” not personalized recommendations. Always review your vendor's fund options, read prospectuses carefully, and consider consulting a fee-only fiduciary advisor before making investment decisions.

How a PE Teacher Became an Investment Nerd

Before I walk you through the investment options, let me tell you how I figured it out β€” because if a PE teacher and basketball coach can learn this, so can you.

The book that changed everything for me was The Simple Path to Wealth by JL Collins. I also listened to JL Collins speak on podcasts β€” including ChooseFI β€” many times. His message was simple: invest in low-cost index funds, don't try to beat the market, and stay the course. That simplicity resonated deeply with me.

From there, I kept going. David Bach's The Automatic Millionaire taught me the power of automating my savings. Tony Robbins' Money Master the Game and Unshakeable: Your Financial Freedom Playbook gave me a broader perspective on building wealth and the confidence to stay invested no matter what the market does. And dozens of podcast episodes across multiple shows filled in the gaps. (I'll share the full list of podcasts that influenced my journey in Module 10.)

I'm passing everything I learned from hundreds of hours of self-education to you β€” so you don't have to do that homework yourself.

πŸ“Š Before We Start β€” Let's Talk About the Scoreboard

That subtitle isn't a typo. Over the last 20 years, more than 94% of actively managed mutual funds failed to beat a simple index fund.

That's not my opinion β€” that's from the SPIVA Scorecard, published by S&P Global (yes, the same company behind the S&P 500). They've been tracking this data since 2002, and the results are consistent: the vast majority of professional mutual fund managers β€” people with MBAs, billion-dollar research teams, and Bloomberg terminals β€” can't beat an index fund that charges almost nothing and requires zero expertise.

And here's the part they don't want you to know: nearly half of those funds didn't even survive the full 20 years. They got shut down or quietly merged into other funds to bury the evidence. S&P Global calls this "survivorship bias" β€” and it means the real failure rate is even worse than it looks.

So what does that mean for you? It means the simple strategy you're about to learn in this module β€” low-cost index funds β€” is an approach many educators find accessible and cost-effective. Historically, it has performed competitively compared to many actively managed funds. And you don't need a finance degree to use it.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA U.S. Scorecard (2005–2024) β€” spglobal.com/spdji

πŸ“° The New York Times Experiment (1993–2000)

In 1993, The New York Times invited five mutual fund experts to build hypothetical $50,000 portfolios β€” designed as lessons for ordinary investors saving for retirement. The experiment was meant to run 20 years, but by 2000, the results were already clear. After seven years β€” through one of the strongest bull markets in history β€” the S&P 500 index fund had outperformed most of the expert-built portfolios. The Times' own headline said it all: "The Winner Is... Indexing." Five professionals, given every advantage, couldn't consistently beat the fund you can buy for almost nothing.

Index Funds vs. Actively Managed Mutual Funds

When you log into your 403(b) or 457(b), you're going to see a list of investment options. Most of them will be one of two things: actively managed mutual funds or index funds. Understanding the difference between these two is one of the most important things you'll learn in this entire course.

What is an actively managed mutual fund?

A mutual fund pools money from thousands of investors and hands it to a professional fund manager. That manager's job is to pick which stocks, bonds, or other investments to buy and sell β€” trying to beat the overall market. You're paying that manager for their expertise through the fund's expense ratio, which typically runs 0.50% to 1.50% per year.

Here's what most people don't realize: these managers are constantly buying and selling. An actively managed mutual fund might turn over 50% to 100% of its holdings every single year. That means by year's end, the manager may have sold and replaced most of the stocks in the fund. Every one of those trades costs money β€” transaction fees, bid-ask spreads, tax inefficiencies β€” and those costs get passed directly to you, built into the expense ratio. You never see a bill, but you're paying for every trade.

What is an index fund?

An index fund takes a completely different approach. Instead of paying a manager to pick winners, it simply holds every stock in a specific index β€” like the S&P 500 (the 500 largest companies in America). No one is deciding which stocks to buy or sell. The fund just mirrors the index.

When a company falls out of the S&P 500, a new one earns its way in β€” automatically. The fund adjusts, and you don't have to do anything. This is why index fund turnover is typically just 2–5% per year compared to 50–100% for active funds. Fewer trades means lower costs, and expense ratios for index funds are often 0.03% to 0.15% β€” a fraction of what active funds charge.

Why does this matter for your 403(b), 457(b), and beyond?

Think about it this way: with an actively managed mutual fund, you're paying a professional manager 10 to 50 times more in fees, they're churning through stocks all year generating additional costs, and β€” as you're about to see β€” the vast majority of them still can't beat the index fund that just sits there and does nothing.

If you completed Module 4, you already know what fees do to your money over 30 years. Now you know where a big chunk of those fees come from.

And this doesn't just apply to your 403(b) and 457(b). When you open a Roth IRA or invest your HSA (covered in Modules 5 and 6), you'll have even more options available β€” including individual stocks, actively managed mutual funds, and index funds. The same principle applies everywhere your money is invested. Many financial educators emphasize the same core ideas: keeping costs low, staying broadly diversified, and letting time do the work.

Why Index Funds?

Now that you understand the difference between actively managed mutual funds and index funds, let's go deeper into how index funds actually work β€” because the more you understand them, the more confident you'll feel about your investment choices.

Think of It Like a Basket of Stocks

I like to think of an index fund as a basket. Instead of buying one company's stock and hoping it takes off, you're buying a basket that holds a tiny piece of hundreds β€” sometimes thousands β€” of companies all at once.

For example, an S&P 500 index fund holds all 500 of the largest companies in America. Apple. Google. Johnson & Johnson. Walmart. You own a slice of all of them with a single fund. One basket. Instant diversification. No guesswork.

Coach Marty Coach Marty says:
Think of it like a team roster instead of betting on one player. You wouldn't build a championship team by scouting one player and hoping they carry the whole season. You build depth β€” different strengths, different positions, covering each other when one has a bad game. An index fund is your full roster. The whole team working for you.

The Basket Is Self-Cleansing

Here's the part that really got me when I first learned it β€” and it's something most people never hear about.

Index funds don't just sit still. They automatically update themselves. When a company starts underperforming and drops out of the index, it gets removed from your basket and replaced by a stronger company moving up. You never have to do a thing β€” the index itself handles it.

Think about what that means: the index tends to reflect the largest and most successful companies at any given time. Underperformers are replaced as the composition changes. New rising companies earn their way in. Your basket is constantly upgrading itself β€” completely automatically, at no extra cost to you.

Real example: Sears was once one of the most powerful companies in America β€” a dominant force in the S&P 500. As it declined over the years, it was eventually removed from the index. Meanwhile, Amazon earned its way in and became one of the largest holdings. You didn't have to make a single decision β€” the index handled it automatically. That's the self-cleansing mechanism at work.

Compare that to trying to pick individual stocks β€” choosing which companies will win, which will lose, and when to buy or sell. It's stressful, time-consuming, and the odds are against you. The basket removes all of that. You stop trying to guess and just own the whole game.

"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!"
β€” Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard
πŸ€ Coach Marty Take: Jack Bogle built Vanguard on this exact idea and changed investing forever. Stop trying to find the one perfect stock. Own the whole basket β€” low fees, built-in diversification, self-cleaning. That's it. That's the core principle behind low-cost index investing.

You Found a Green Light Vendor. Now What?

In Module 4, you learned about fees and discovered 403bwise. You looked up your district, found the green light vendors, and now you're ready to open an account.

But here's where most teachers get stuck: "What do I actually invest in?"

You log into Vanguard or Fidelity, and suddenly you're staring at 50+ investment options with names like:

πŸ“Œ Note: Fidelity and Vanguard are used throughout this module as examples because they're among the most widely available low-cost providers. Many other low-cost providers offer similar funds. Always check your district's approved vendor list to see what's available to you.

This module breaks it all down β€” what these options actually are, three simple approaches many educators use, and the historical data that informed my own decision to keep it simple.

πŸ“– Quick Vocab: What's a Share?

Before we dive in β€” a quick definition many teachers wish someone had explained earlier. Most people have heard the word "share" but never had it explained in plain English.

When you invest in a fund, you're buying tiny pieces of ownership called shares. Think of it like a pizza cut into a million slices β€” each slice is a share. When you contribute $200/month to your 403(b), that money buys however many slices the current price allows.

When prices drop, your $200 buys more slices. When prices rise, it buys fewer slices β€” but the ones you already own are worth more. Over time, consistent monthly contributions mean you're always buying β€” whether prices are high or low. This is called dollar cost averaging, and historically it has worked in long-term investors' favor.

πŸ“– Quick Vocab: Stocks & Bonds

Two more words you'll see throughout this module β€” and throughout your retirement accounts. Here's the plain-English version:

A stock is a tiny piece of ownership in a company. When you buy a stock, you own a small slice of that business β€” its profits, its growth, and yes, its losses. If the company does well, your stock goes up in value. If it struggles, it goes down. Stocks have historically offered higher long-term growth, but with more ups and downs along the way.

A bond is a loan you make to a company or the government. They pay you back with interest over a set period β€” like an IOU with a guaranteed payment schedule. Bonds are generally considered more stable than stocks, but with lower long-term growth potential.

As JL Collins puts it in The Simple Path to Wealth, bonds are there to "smooth the waters." Stocks are the engine that drives growth β€” bonds keep the ride from making you seasick.

Why does this matter? Every fund you'll see in your 403(b) or 457(b) is made up of stocks, bonds, or a mix of both. Understanding the difference helps you make sense of the three investment paths coming up β€” and why the mix between stocks and bonds changes as you get closer to retirement.

Three Simple Paths to Choose From

I want to be upfront with you β€” there are countless investing philosophies out there. Entire books, podcasts, and YouTube channels dedicated to different strategies. It's simply not possible to cover all of them in one course, and honestly, that would do more harm than good. Too many options leads to paralysis, and paralysis leads to doing nothing.

So instead of giving you everything, I'm sharing three straightforward approaches built around low-cost index funds. They aren't flashy or complicated β€” but that's the point. They're practical, they're backed by data, and many educators have stuck with them for the long haul. See which one resonates with your situation:

Path 1: Set and Forget

Want complete autopilot? Never think about investing again? A Target Date Fund is often called the 'easy button.' Many teachers (including me when I first started) find this the simplest path β€” because it requires zero ongoing decisions after setup.

Path 2: Simple & Aggressive

Under 40 and interested in maximum growth? Many long-term investors in this position choose an All Stocks approach.

Path 3: Traditional Balanced

Want control with bonds for stability? Build a 3-Fund Portfolio.

Let's break down each path so you can decide which fits you best. πŸ‘‡

Path 1: Target Date Funds (The Easy Button)

One of the simplest approaches is a Target Date Fund.

How they work:

But What's Actually Inside a Target Date Fund?

It's not some mysterious Wall Street creation. When you open one up, here's what you'll find β€” just three types of index funds bundled together:

  • A Total U.S. Stock Market Fund β€” owns thousands of American companies
  • An International Stock Fund β€” owns companies outside the U.S.
  • A Bond Fund β€” provides stability and income

That's it. Three ingredients. The "target date" part is just how the fund company blends them over time β€” heavy on stocks when you're young, gradually shifting toward bonds as you approach retirement. This is called a glide path:

Your Age Stocks (U.S. + International) Bonds What's Happening
25 90% 10% Maximum growth β€” decades to recover from dips
35 85% 15% Still aggressive β€” time is on your side
45 75% 25% Starting to add stability
55 60% 40% Protecting what you've built
65 50% 50% Balanced for retirement income

← Scroll to see full table β†’

Example Target Date Funds

Your Age Retirement Year Common Funds to Consider by Approximate Retirement Year
25 2062 Target Date 2060 or 2065 Fund
35 2052 Target Date 2050 or 2055 Fund
45 2042 Target Date 2040 or 2045 Fund
50 2037 Target Date 2035 or 2040 Fund
55 2032 Target Date 2030 or 2035 Fund
Coach Marty Pro Tip: You're Not Locked Into Your Exact Retirement Year
Here's something most people don't realize β€” you don't have to select the target date fund that matches your actual retirement year. Some educators use the year to adjust their stock/bond mix up or down:

Want to be more aggressive? Some educators select a fund 5-10 years beyond their retirement date (e.g., retiring in 2045? Consider the 2055 fund for more stocks longer).

Want to be more conservative? Some educators select a fund 5-10 years before their retirement date (e.g., retiring in 2045? Consider the 2035 fund for an earlier shift to bonds).

We all have a different investment tolerance. A teacher who can sleep through a 30% market drop might pick the later fund. A teacher who checks their balance every week and gets anxious might pick the earlier one. Neither is wrong β€” it's about what keeps you invested and not panic-selling.

βœ… When Educators Often Consider a Target Date Fund

Educators who value maximum simplicity often select a Target Date Fund when they:

  • Want the simplest approach possible
  • Don't want to think about rebalancing
  • Are okay with "good enough" instead of optimizing every detail
  • Want to set it and forget it

At Vanguard: Look for "Target Retirement 20XX" funds (fees around 0.08%)

At Fidelity: Look for "Fidelity Freedom Index 20XX" funds (fees around 0.12%)

Path 2: All Stocks Portfolio

Coach Marty The Case for All Stocks (When You're Young):
If you're under 40 with 25+ years until retirement, many experts suggest focusing heavily on stocks for growth. Bonds reduce volatility but also reduce returns. Historically, U.S. stock market returns have averaged approximately 10% annually over long periods, though returns vary significantly and are not guaranteed. Bonds have historically returned less β€” often in the 4–5% range. That historical difference can compound significantly over long periods. When you're young, market crashes are buying opportunities β€” your contributions buy stocks at a discount. This approach involves higher volatility, which historically has been part of long-term growth periods.

One aggressive, growth-oriented approach is 100% stocks:

Two Ways to Do All Stocks

πŸš€ Option A: Single Fund (Easiest)

1
100% U.S. Total Stock Market
Examples: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX), Fidelity Total Market Index (FSKAX)
What it does: Owns ~4,000 U.S. companies - instant diversification
Fees: 0.03-0.04% (ultra-low)

🌎 Option B: Two Funds (Global Diversification)

1
70% U.S. Total Stock Market
Same U.S. fund as above - captures American market growth
2
30% International Total Stock Market
Examples: Vanguard Total International (VTIAX), Fidelity International Index (FTIHX)
What it does: Owns companies in Europe, Asia, emerging markets
Why: Hedge against U.S.-only risk, capture global growth

βš–οΈ You Choose the Split

The 70/30 split shown here is one common starting point β€” but you choose the weight. Many educators go 80/20 (more U.S. focused), 60/40 (slightly more international), or even 50/50. There's no single right answer. The key is picking a split you're comfortable with and staying consistent.

When you log into your vendor's website and select your funds, you'll see a field to enter the percentage for each fund β€” just make sure they add up to 100%. For example: 70% in the U.S. fund, 30% in the international fund. You can adjust this at any time.

🏷️ What Are Ticker Symbols?

Those letters and numbers like VTSAX and FSKAX are called ticker symbols β€” every investment fund has a unique one, kind of like a license plate for a car. It is just a shorthand code that identifies a specific fund. When you search for a fund in your retirement account, you can type the ticker symbol to find it instantly.

The ticker symbols listed above are specifically from Vanguard and Fidelity β€” two of the most popular low-cost vendors. If your district uses a different vendor, your ticker symbols will be different, but the funds will be similar. Just search for "total stock market," "total international," and "total bond market" within your vendor fund list. The names may vary slightly, but the concept is the same.

βœ… When Some Younger Educators Consider an All-Stocks Approach

Some younger educators with long time horizons and high comfort with market swings consider an All-Stocks approach when they:

  • Are under 40 years old (25+ years to retirement)
  • Can stomach 30-50% drops without losing sleep (or at least without selling)
  • Want to prioritize long-term growth potential
  • Believe in the stock market's long-term trajectory
  • Don't need bonds to sleep at night

This approach may not suit educators who: are within 10 years of retirement, or who prefer less volatility in their portfolio.

Path 3: The 3-Fund Portfolio (Traditional Balanced)

For educators who like having a little more control over the dials, the 3-Fund Portfolio is worth understanding. It’s exactly what it sounds like β€” just three funds.

This is called the "3-Fund Portfolio" and it's a strategy popularized by investing legends like Jack Bogle (founder of Vanguard).

The Three Funds

πŸ—οΈ The 3-Fund Portfolio

1
U.S. Total Stock Market Fund
Examples: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSAX), Fidelity Total Market Index (FSKAX)
What it does: Owns ~4,000 U.S. companies
Example allocation range: 50-70% of portfolio (based on age)
2
International Stock Market Fund
Examples: Vanguard Total International (VTIAX), Fidelity International Index (FTIHX)
What it does: Owns companies in Europe, Asia, emerging markets
Example allocation range: 10-30% of portfolio
3
Total Bond Market Fund
Examples: Vanguard Total Bond Market (VBTLX), Fidelity U.S. Bond Index (FXNAX)
What it does: Owns U.S. government and corporate bonds
Example allocation range: Based on your age (increases as you age)

Sample Portfolios by Age

Age Range U.S. Stocks International Stocks Bonds
25-35 60% 25% 15%
35-45 50% 25% 25%
45-55 45% 20% 35%
55-65 35% 15% 50%

← Scroll to see full table β†’

βœ… When Educators Often Consider a 3-Fund Portfolio

Educators who prefer slightly lower fees and are willing to spend 10–15 minutes once a year often build a 3-Fund Portfolio when they:

  • Want slightly lower fees than Target Date Funds (0.03-0.05% vs 0.08-0.12%)
  • Are willing to rebalance once per year β€” it takes 10–15 minutes, literally set a calendar reminder for your birthday
  • Want bonds for stability and sleep-at-night factor
  • Like the traditional balanced approach

The tradeoff: Could potentially result in lower costs over long periods based on hypothetical fee differences vs. a Target Date Fund, but requires 15 minutes of work annually.

Wait a Second… Does Path 3 Look Familiar?

Go back and look at what's inside a Target Date Fund from Path 1. Three ingredients:

Inside a Target Date Fund:
  • A Total U.S. Stock Market Fund
  • An International Stock Fund
  • A Bond Fund

Now look at the 3-Fund Portfolio from Path 3:

The 3-Fund Portfolio:

  • U.S. Total Stock Market Fund
  • International Stock Market Fund
  • Total Bond Market Fund

They're built on the same core investing philosophy β€” broad diversification at low cost. The ingredients are similar, but not always identical, and who manages the mix makes all the difference.

The difference has nothing to do with what you're invested in β€” it's about who's driving.

🚌 Target Date Fund

The fund company is driving. They blend the three funds, adjust the mix as you age, and rebalance automatically. You don't lift a finger.

🏎️ 3-Fund Portfolio

You're in the driver's seat. You choose your own percentages, and once a year β€” take 15 minutes to rebalance back to your target. That's it.

So why would anyone bother doing it themselves? One word: fees. It's a small difference β€” but here's what it looks like:

Target Date Fund 3-Fund Portfolio (DIY)
Expense Ratio 0.08% – 0.12% 0.03% – 0.05%
On $200,000 ~$160–$240/yr ~$60–$100/yr
Your effort Zero β€” fully automatic 15 min once per year

For many educators, that convenience is valuable β€” one less thing to think about. For others, 15 minutes a year for a slightly lower price tag is an easy trade. Either approach invests in the same three types of index funds. Both are commonly chosen for good reasons.

Coach Marty Coach Marty says:
Don't let the fee difference be the thing that paralyzes you. The real win was choosing a green light vendor back in Module 4. Compared to what bad 403(b) vendors charge, the difference between a target date fund and a 3-fund portfolio is a rounding error. Pick the path you'll actually stick with β€” that matters far more than squeezing out every last basis point.

Making Your Decision

Here's a framework many educators use when considering their options:

🎯 Quick Decision Guide

1
Do you value simplicity above all else?
If yes: A Target Date Fund is a common choice β€” select a year closest to when you expect to draw from the account (typically age 58–67 for teachers).
If no: Continue to Step 2.
2
Are you under 40 with high risk tolerance?
If yes: Some educators explore an All Stocks Portfolio (100% stocks, 0% bonds) for higher long-term growth potential.
If no: Continue to Step 3.
3
Are you willing to rebalance once per year?
If yes: Many educators build a 3-fund portfolio with bonds for added stability.
If no: A Target Date Fund (Step 1) may be a better fit.
4
Log in and set it up
Once logged into your 403(b) account, look for "Change Investments" or "Investment Options." Find your chosen fund(s) by name. Set your contribution to 100% to your chosen fund(s). Then go to your HR/payroll system and set up automatic contributions.

Wondering how contributions affect your take-home pay? Try the Paycheck Impact Calculator to see exactly how much your paycheck changes after taxes.

This is an educational illustration only. Your own situation, risk comfort, and vendor options will determine what fits you best.

Important: Don't let perfection be the enemy of good. Choosing ANY of these three paths and starting NOW is infinitely better than spending 6 months researching the "perfect" portfolio and never starting. You can always change your investments later.

What I Actually Chose (And Why I Changed My Mind)

I want to show you my real journey β€” because it wasn't a straight line, and yours doesn't have to be either.

When I first started investing β€” my 403(b) with Vanguard in 2018 and my 457(b) with Fidelity in 2019 β€” I started with target date funds β€” that's Path 1: Set and Forget. It was the easy button, and at the time, that's exactly what I needed. I was just getting started and didn't want to overthink it.

But after about a year of research β€” reading JL Collins, listening to podcasts, and building my own investing philosophy β€” I realized I wanted to be more aggressive. Target date funds include bonds, which reduce volatility but also reduce growth. As a late starter trying to make up for 25 lost years, I wanted higher potential for long-term growth. I was willing to ride the ups and downs if it meant my money was working as hard as possible. So I switched to Path 2: All Stocks Portfolio β€” Option B β€” removing bonds from my portfolio entirely and going 100% into stock index funds.

That's not the right move for everyone. This was a personal decision based on my age, risk tolerance, and the fact that I have a CalSTRS pension as a safety net. Here's one way to think about it: a pension acts like a giant bond β€” guaranteed income for life. Some financial educators suggest this means teachers can consider holding more stocks than typical age-based guidelines suggest, because their pension already provides built-in stability. That's one reason I personally chose the all-stocks path β€” my CalSTRS pension is effectively my "bond allocation." This is not a recommendation β€” it's a framework for thinking about how your pension changes the equation. Your situation may be different.

The bigger lesson: I started simple (target date fund), educated myself, then adjusted. You can do the same. Don't let the fear of picking the "wrong" fund stop you from starting. Start with a target date fund today, and if you want to get more hands-on later, you can always change. The important thing is that your money is working for you NOW.

🚩 🚩 Red Flags: Higher-Risk Options to Review Carefully

What many teachers skip β€” even at green light vendors:

Note: These are general educational guidelines. Your specific situation may vary β€” consult your vendor's fund options and consider professional advice.

The Most Important Lesson: Stay the Course

You've picked your funds. You've set up automatic contributions. Now here's the hardest part of investing β€” and it has nothing to do with picking the right fund.

It's not selling when the market drops.

The stock market will go down. Sometimes it will go down a lot. When your account drops 20%, 30%, even 40%, many investors feel a strong instinct to sell and protect what's left. Historical market data suggests that staying invested through downturns has often been a more effective long-term approach. JL Collins explains this beautifully in The Simple Path to Wealth β€” the market has always had ups and downs, but historically there have been far more ups than downs. His core message β€” and a principle I strongly believe in: stay the course and maintain consistency through market cycles.

But don't just take my word for it. Let me show you the data that convinced me.

What Is Dollar Cost Averaging?

Dollar cost averaging means investing a fixed amount of money on a regular schedule β€” regardless of what the market is doing. When you set up automatic contributions from your paycheck into your 403(b), you're already doing it.

Here's why it's so powerful: when the market is up, your fixed contribution buys fewer shares (they're expensive). When the market is down, that same contribution buys MORE shares (they're on sale). Over time, you end up buying more shares at low prices than at high prices β€” which lowers your average cost and increases your returns.

Historically, many long-term investors have continued investing through market downturns β€” viewing lower prices as an opportunity, not a threat. Every contribution during a downturn purchases shares at reduced prices. And when markets have recovered β€” as they historically have β€” those shares purchased at lower prices have been worth significantly more.

The "Lost Decade" β€” And Why It Doesn't Matter

From January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009, the S&P 500 produced negative total returns. A full decade. The dot-com bubble burst (2000-2002). Then the financial crisis hit (2008-2009). Investors who bought on January 1, 2000 and checked their balance on December 31, 2009 saw a total loss of roughly 9-10% β€” an annualized return of negative 0.9%.

Sounds terrifying, right? But here's what the headlines miss: teachers who kept contributing through those 10 years came out ahead. Their automatic contributions bought shares at rock-bottom prices during both crashes. When the market recovered β€” and it did, spectacularly β€” those cheap shares multiplied in value. Dollar cost averaging turned the "Lost Decade" into a wealth-building opportunity.

The Ultimate Proof: The Great Depression

I was watching The Money Guy Show podcast on my TV one night when I saw something so powerful, I had to rewind it and take a screenshot with my phone. You can even see the reflection of my living room in the image β€” that's how real this moment was for me. It's the piece of data that convinced me personally about dollar cost averaging:

The Power of Dollar Cost Averaging - Great Depression data showing $260,000 invested grew to $1.5 million

Source: The Money Guy Show (Quandl.com, Investing.com, and Fidelity)

Read that again. The Dow closed at $381 on September 3, 1929 β€” the eve of the Great Depression. It didn't get back to that level until November 23, 1954, when it closed at $383. A $2 increase over 25 years.

If you invested a lump sum on the worst possible day in market history and just held it, you waited a quarter century to break even. That's the scary headline.

But here's the headline that changes everything: If you invested $10,000 every year starting September 1, 1929 β€” through the Great Depression, through World War II, through every crisis of those 25 years β€” your total investment of $260,000 compounded to $1.5 million. That's an 11.7% annualized return. During the worst economic period in American history.

This illustrates the potential benefit of dollar cost averaging, maintaining consistency through market cycles, and staying the course.

But What About Market Timing?

Before I show you the next piece of data, let me explain something you'll hear a lot once you start investing: "timing the market."

What is market timing? It's the idea of trying to predict when the stock market will go up or down β€” and buying or selling based on those predictions. "I'll wait until the market drops to invest." "I'll sell before it crashes." "I'll jump back in when things recover." That's market timing.

It sounds logical. Buy low, sell high β€” who wouldn't want to do that? But here's the problem: nobody can do it consistently. Not Wall Street professionals. Not billionaire hedge fund managers. Not the talking heads on financial news shows. Study after study has shown that even the "experts" fail at timing the market more often than they succeed. And every day you sit on the sidelines waiting for the "right time" is a day your money isn't growing.

So what do many long-term investors do instead? One commonly used approach is dollar cost averaging β€” investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule regardless of market conditions. If you're making automatic 403(b) contributions from your paycheck, you're already doing it.

And if you're not convinced yet, this next piece of data is the one that sealed it for me. It comes from Tony Robbins' Unshakeable: Your Financial Freedom Playbook β€” another book I highly recommend β€” and it shows a study by Schwab looking at what happened when someone invested $2,000 per year for 20 years starting in 1993, using three different approaches:

The Schwab Timing Study

$2,000 invested per year for 20 years (1993–2012)

Strategy Final Value
🎯 Perfect Timing β€” invested at the best moment every year $87,004
😬 Worst Timing β€” invested at the worst moment every year $72,487
πŸ’΅ Stayed in Cash β€” never invested (Treasury Bills only) $51,291

Source: Charles Schwab data (Riepe, 2013), referenced in Tony Robbins' Unshakeable

The person with perfect timing β€” who somehow invested at the absolute best moment every single year β€” ended up with $87,004. The person with the worst timing β€” who invested at the absolute worst moment every year, every single time β€” ended up with $72,487. That's only a 17% difference between perfect and terrible timing.

But the person who stayed in cash (Treasury Bills) and avoided the market entirely? Just $51,291. Even the unluckiest investor alive beat the person who never invested at all.

Coach Marty What This Data Taught Me:
This single study changed my entire investing mindset. It taught me that you don't try to time the market. You don't wait for the "right moment." You don't try to outsmart it. Many long-term investors choose to continue dollar cost averaging β€” and historical data illustrates how this approach has worked over long periods.

Think about it: perfect timing only beat the worst timing by $14,517 over 20 years. But both of them crushed the person who sat on the sidelines. The lesson isn't "buy at the right time." The lesson is: just keep buying.
Coach Marty πŸ”₯ Coach Marty's Bottom Line:
The Great Depression. The Lost Decade. The worst market timing in history. In every historical scenario studied, the person who kept investing came out ahead. That's not an opinion β€” it's data spanning nearly 100 years.

When your 403(b) drops 30% and your colleagues are panicking in the break room, remember this module. Remember the teacher who invested $10,000 a year through the Great Depression and ended up a millionaire. Your automatic paycheck contributions are doing the exact same thing. Stay the course. Keep investing. Many long-term investors have found that consistency through market cycles is what matters most.

As The Money Guy Show says β€” and as JL Collins wrote β€” time in the market beats timing the market β€” and that’s not just a saying, it’s backed by decades of data.

Real Teacher Examples

πŸ“– Rachel's Simple Approach (Target Date)

Rachel is 32, teaches elementary school, and doesn't want to think about investing. She chose Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 Fund and set up automatic contributions of $400/month.

That's it. She doesn't check her balance monthly. She doesn't worry about the market. She knows the fund automatically shifts from stocks to bonds as she ages.

In this hypothetical scenario, her contributions could grow to approximately $620,000 β€” though actual results will vary and are not guaranteed.

Assumes $400/month at 7% average annual return, compounded monthly over 33 years to age 65.

πŸ“– Marcus's All Stocks Approach

Marcus is 28 and just started teaching. He went with 100% Vanguard Total Stock Market β€” nothing else. No bonds, no complexity.

When the market drops, he doesn't panic. He knows he has 37 years until retirement. Market crashes are buying opportunities for him.

His fees: 0.03% per year. His strategy: max growth while he's young, add bonds in his 50s.

πŸ“– David's 3-Fund Portfolio

David is 45 and likes having more control. He set up a 3-fund portfolio at Fidelity:

Once per year, he checks if any fund has drifted more than 5% from target. If so, he rebalances. Takes him about 15 minutes annually.

His total fees: 0.04% per year. Over 30 years, the fee difference could hypothetically amount to $10,000–$15,000 compared to a target date fund β€” but he has to do that annual rebalancing.

πŸ“Œ Key Takeaways

  • Three simple paths: Target Date (easiest), All Stocks (aggressive growth), or 3-Fund (traditional balanced)
  • Target Date Funds are the easy button β€” many educators simply select the year closest to their expected retirement and never touch it again
  • All Stocks Portfolio is an approach some younger educators with high risk tolerance have used to pursue maximum long-term growth
  • The 3-Fund Portfolio (U.S. stocks, international stocks, bonds) offers slightly lower fees with annual rebalancing
  • Index funds keep fees low β€” and the data shows they’ve historically outperformed the vast majority of actively managed funds
  • A broadly diversified core portfolio is a common foundation β€” sector and style-specific funds are optional extras, not essentials. According to 403bwise.org, index funds under 0.25% and target date funds under 0.60% are benchmarks associated with their highest-rated plans
  • Historically, starting with any sound approach has been far more effective than delaying in search of the "perfect" portfolio

πŸ“ Knowledge Check

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